Adapting the EU's Transport to Climate Change

"What you do makes a difference, and you have to decide what kind of difference you want to make." — The world-renowned zoologist, primatologist, and anthropologist Dame Jane Morris Goodall DBE (b. 1934).

Ongoing research, analysis, and debate have found global warming and climate change to be the long-term and unprecedented shift of the earth’s surface temperature and weather patterns, respectively (Hansen et al., 2006; Ring et al., 2012; Wang et al., 2023; Goebbert et al., 2012; Hashim & Hashim, 2016). The effects are “accelerating” (Roggema, 2009, p.2), “dramatic” (Donohoe, 2007, p.44), and “far-reaching” (Scott et al., 2019, p.49). By affecting socio-political, cultural, and economic determinants, it may challenge society’s ability to adapt and expose its vulnerability to growing change (Ford & Ford, 2011, p.3).*

As of 1 January 2020, the European Union (EU) is a supranational union of 27 member states with a population of 448 million (Eurostat, 2020). Climate change is turning the continent into the fastest-warming on the planet (European Environment Agency, 2024, p.11), causing major social, economic, and political consequences for its inhabitants as agriculture, ecosystems, food production, and supply chains are disrupted. Simultaneously, the Union’s urbanisation and population are expected to grow through this century, exacerbating the pressure on infrastructure, resources, and public services.

From this, developing sustainable and resilient transportation systems, such as the European Commission’s Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) initiative, has become critical in preserving the single market and its enshrined freedoms of free movement of goods, services, capital, and persons. However, transport accounts for roughly 30% of the EU’s total greenhouse gas emissions (Dolge et al., 2023), threatening biodiversity, public health, natural landscapes, cultural landmarks, and historic monuments.

This article will discuss the EU’s ambitious commitments to achieve cleaner, sustainable, and carbon-neutral transportation in rail, road, air, and water sectors. To curb transport emissions, which have been increasing since 1990, the EU has set the climate target of a carbon-neutral continent by 2050. Decarbonisation policies include the 2005 European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), the world’s first international scheme for capping greenhouse gas emissions by companies, and the legally binding European Climate Law, in 2021, enshrining the objectives set out in the earlier European Green Deal which aims to “transform the EU”.

Figure 1: An Athens street filled with cars in 1977. The Acropolis, in the distance, is just one example of the EU's heritage sites threatened by climate change caused by vehicle emissions (UNESCO & Roger, 1977).

“Time is running out to avoid the worst impacts of climate change” (Bergamaschi et al., 2019, p.15). The risks of climate change are transboundary and are already affecting the efficiency of the EU’s transport sector, which serves civilian, commercial, and military purposes and is an essential lifeline for moving trade, commerce, and people throughout Europe and beyond. In addition to the road, rail, air, and water networks, distinct transport modes in the EU include metros (France and Italy), trams (Czech Republic and Portugal), trolleybuses (Bulgaria and Greece), and inland shipping (Germany and the Netherlands).

Freedom of movement and increasing integration of EU transport networks means “[t]he responsibility for adapting to climate change is thus shared by member states and the EU” (Lenaerts et al., 2022). Extreme flooding, storms, and heat events are significant risks from climate change, threatening the reliability and safety of Europe’s extensive air, land, and water transportation systems. Sustainable and energy-efficient public transportation is critical in reducing EU greenhouse gas emissions, namely carbon dioxide, by reducing road congestion and urban air pollution. Transport systems, though, are already experiencing delays, disruption and damage to infrastructure caused by climate change. In Austria and Sweden, for example, failures and delays on the national railway networks have noticeably increased due to adverse weather events (Palin et al., 2021; Palmqvist & Ochsner, 2023). In a 2024 report, the market research firm Berg Insight AB highlighted the importance of public transportation systems before the COVID-19 restrictions in 2019, when approximately 60 billion passenger journeys occurred in Europe (Jansson, 2024). The public’s reliance on these networks is also demonstrated by the 7.3 billion railway passengers alone in 2022 (Eurostat, 2024, p.17) and the 32.1 billion bus passengers annually (Pietrzak & Pietrzak, 2020).

In 2021, the EU adopted the European Climate Law (Regulation (EU) 2021/1119) (ECL), a framework for Europe to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 (Regulation (EU) 2021/1119). Several EU Member States have their own legally binding climate documents (Kulovesi et al., 2024), but the ECL established collective targets for all Member States to meet. While it outlines legal requirements for emission reduction by transport, the specific measures for a sustainable, efficient, and resilient system are set out in the European Commission’s European Green Deal (EGD) of 2020, which mandated the ECL to deliver these proposals (European Commission, 2019). Furthermore, the EU ETS has been incorporated by the EGD and since January 2024 has expanded to include shipping emissions.

Figure 2: The picturesque Brenner Railway in Austria. Mudslides, caused by torrential rain, in August 2023 affected train services on the transalpine line (Liberaler Humanist, 2018).

EU Climate Initiatives for Transport

The EGD has been described as an “environmental-centric industrial revolution” (Verschuur & Sbrolli, 2020, p.284) to radically decarbonise the EU’s economy to create a sustainable and resource-efficient society. Its historical significance as the foundation for Europe to be the world’s first carbon-neutral continent by 2050 (Wolf et al., 2021) and creating a circular economy by decoupling economic growth from the use of ecological resources (Almeida et al., 2023), have made this “a new era for European Union policies” (Moreira-Dantas et al., 2023). The decarbonisation agenda has sweeping implications for the EU’s transport, the only economic sector since 1990 to see emissions increase (Andrés & Padilla, 2018; Sporkmann et al., 2023). Fossil fuel consumption has been identified as the cause (Dolge et al., 2023), most of which is imported (Rokicki et al., 2023). EU road transport, such as cars and vans, is the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, followed by aviation (13.9%) and shipping (11%) of the transport sector’s total emissions. Europe’s railways are the lowest emitters with less than 1%.

The EGD and ECL aim to transform the polluting transport sector into a clean, efficient, and sustainable entity by reducing emissions by 90% relative to 1990, but without jeopardising the economic growth of the Union. All modes of transport are affected by the emission and infrastructure proposals to achieve a carbon-neutral EU by 2050. A key objective of the EGD is the European Commission’s multimodal Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T), adopted in 1990, to construct a series of extensive road, rail, air, and water networks across Europe to strengthen the integration of the single market (Stasinopoulos, 1995; Martín, 2011). Since 2013, this collaborative project between Member States has resulted in the creation of nine Core Network Corridors (CNCs) stretching west to east, from Portugal’s Atlantic coast to the Baltic Sea, and north to south, from the north of Norway to Malta (Weenen et al., 2016). Climate change, though, has changed the focus from interconnectivity to a form of collective resilience to ensure the exchange and trade of energy, goods, and services of the world’s largest trading block continue as extreme weather events increase. The scale and scope of the TEN-T have made it essential for the success of the EGD and the future resilience of the Union.

Figure 3: The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, photographed in January 2024, described the European Green Deal as Europe’s “man on the moon” moment in December 2019 (Licoppe & European Union, 2024).

Sector-Specific Goals for Sustainable Transport

Rail

While railways raise environmental concerns over noise, vibrations, and toxic emissions (Brtnický et al., 2022; Milewicz et al., 2023), they are Europe’s least polluting mode of transport (Haunold, 2020). An efficient and electrified system is fundamental to reducing the EU’s emissions (UIC & CER, 2015; Fonseca-Soares et al., 2024). Initiatives in the EGD include infrastructure upgrades, such as digitalisation to increase the reliability of services, and investing in high-speed connections to double traffic by 2030 (Montero et al, 2021; Zhang et al., 2024). Despite the COVID-19 fallout on the travel and tourism industries, the railway’s sustainability status was promoted in 2021 when the European Commission declared the year the European Year of Rail.

The EGD recognises railways as the most sustainable freight carrier for economic growth, as opposed to the current use of the road (European Commission, 2019). Depending on freight volume, rail transport can be more costly than road use, but increasing international trade and improved connections have led to a global increase in long-distance shipping by rail, especially the surge in China-Europe freight railway services (Lasserre et al., 2020; Wang et al., 2021) which has strengthened Europe’s status as one of China’s biggest trading partners.

Today, 60% of the EU’s mainline railway system is electrified. Continued electrification is part of the EGD’s decarbonisation plan, which “not only contributes to climate change mitigation but also improves air quality and reduces noise pollution in urban areas near railway lines” (Fonseca-Soares et al., 2024). The innovations in railway sustainability are influencing the other transport sectors.

Figure 4: The EU's nine multimodal Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) corridors as of July 2024 (European Commission, 2024).

Road

As of 2020, roughly 73,000 km of motorway covers the 27 member states of the EU (Ignatov, 2024). It is a system used by approximately 282 million road vehicles (cars and vans) (Mulholland et al., 2022; European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, 2024) that rely on imported oil from the United States for their combustion engines (Eurostat, 2024, July). Before it invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Russia had been the largest exporter of fossil fuels to the EU (Perdana, 2022), forcing the EU to quickly diversify its energy sources and invest in long-term renewable alternatives (the REPowerEU Plan).

The EU's transport is the main consumer of its imported oil (Rokicki et al., 2023), with road vehicles using most of the supplies (Transport and Environment, 2022). The EGD aims to green the road sector, the most polluting of the Union's transport modes (Sporkmann et al., 2023), and curb its energy dependence on fossil fuels by accelerating the shift to electric passenger and freight vehicles. The ambitious proposal includes investing in road and recharging infrastructure, adopting strict zero-emission targets (albeit from 2035), and increasing alternative energy supplies (Tamba et al., 2022; Tsiropoulos et al., 2022).

Although reflecting the “far-reaching” initiatives of the EGD (Verschuur, 2020), unlike rail, air, and water transportation, road vehicles are a reflection of personal choice and independence and pose a challenge for a transition to more sustainable public transportation use: “An understanding of the factors that affect mode choice is essential to the promotion of more sustainable behaviour” (Corpuz, 2007).

Figure 5: European road E77 in Slovakia. In the European Union, road vehicles are the biggest consumer of oil and emitter of greenhouse gases in the transport sector (Zapletal, 2023 [cropped]).

Air

After road transport, the aviation sector generates the most emissions in the EU (Carbon Market Watch, 2021), which have doubled since 1990 (Avogadro & Redondi, 2024). This rise, attributed to the growth in low-cost airlines and passenger demands for cheaper air travel, has raised concerns over pollution and energy security. Since the end of COVID-19 restrictions, air passenger numbers have continued to increase across the EU (Eurocontrol, 2024).

A cornerstone of EU aviation sustainability is ReFuelEU Aviation, which forms part of the EGD (Bullerdiek et al., 2021). The initiative proposes the sector incorporate Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs), produced from renewable resources, in phases from 2025 until 2050 into existing fossil fuels to reduce emissions of an expanding industry (Alsulaiman, 2024; Avogadro & Redondi, 2024).

The introduction of clean fuel coincides with the investment in digitalisation to monitor Europe’s air quality (European Commission, 2019) and the development of zero-emissions aircraft (Fetting, 2020). However, the challenges of decarbonising and modernising this substantial sector in employment and profitability are expected to cost billions of Euros, resulting in increased travel and freight costs and reduced flight numbers (Finger et al., 2021).

Figure 6: Electric aircraft (pictured) are just one solution to creating a sustainable aviation sector, as part of the European Green Deal (Andrejcheck, 2020).

Water

The EU shipping sector is one of the largest fleets in the world and is responsible for approximately 68% of its freight (Eurostat, 2023).

Air pollution caused by burnt fuel is particularly harmful to coastal communities close to shipping lanes (Jonson et al., 2020). In January 2024, the EU ETS was extended to cover ships of any nationality above 5,000 gross tonnage entering the EU (Flodén et al., 2024). Future extensions of the trading system will cover specialised offshore vessels (Transport and Environment, 2023) and those with a gross tonnage of less than 5,000 (Goyal & Llop, 2024).

Shipping emissions are difficult to calculate (varying tonnage, cargo, and ship sizes, for example) (Adamowicz, 2022) and to accurately geographically locate (Christodoulou & Cullinane, 2023). Still, the decarbonisation of the shipping sector - “long largely evaded climate policy” (Zetterberg et al., 2022, p.5) - represents a new phase in the EU’s determination of a carbon-neutral continent by 2050.

The scale of the proposals for radically transforming and modernising transportation places the EU at the forefront of climate change action and also shows the potential of ambitious policies when there is political will and significant investment in research and development. As the world’s largest trading bloc, the EU’s European Green Deal and legally binding Climate Law to decarbonise transport have the potential to not only significantly transform multiple health, social, and economic factors across the supranational union—a unique “opportunity for uniting the European people” (Wolf et al., 2021, p.106)—but also influence global climate policy and energy geopolitics. As climate change intensifies and extreme weather events become more frequent, the far-reaching proposals and initiatives could herald a new era in climate governance and international cooperation.

*Previously published in Waugh, E. (2024, April 7). Local Impacts of Global Climate Change. Arcadia. Retrieved from https://www.byarcadia.org/post/local-impacts-of-global-climate-change

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