Climate Change on Drought and Flooding Events in Scotland

"It never rains but it pours" - A British expression used when several unfortunate events happen at the same time.

Scotland is renowned for its unpredictable weather, famously summed up by the American journalist and author Raymond Bonner: “If you don't like Scottish weather, wait thirty minutes, and it is likely to change.”

Human-driven climate change is gradually rising global temperatures with devastating consequences for society, biodiversity, industry, and agriculture everywhere. Scotland’s temperature and weather are already changing. Following the passing of the Climate Change (Scotland) Act of 2009, outlining Scotland’s climate adaptation measures, a 2011 report by the Adaptation Sub-Committee of the UK Committee on Climate Change (CCC), How Well is Scotland Prepared for Climate Change?, highlighted flooding as one of the major risks to Scotland’s urban populations (Climate Change Committee, 2011). The Scottish Government estimates 280,000 homes and properties are currently threatened by flooding (Scottish Government, 2019), a number expected to increase as climate change intensifies throughout this century. Since the publication of the CCC findings, severe floods have occurred in Brechin, Falkirk, Stonehaven, and the nation’s capital Edinburgh, demonstrating the unpredictability of contemporary weather events.

This article will discuss the impact of extreme and frequent flood and drought events in Scotland that have disrupted agricultural practices and damaged infrastructure and industries crucial to the Scottish economy. The predicted drier summers and wetter winters will have significant social, economic, and political repercussions on the country.

Figure 1: A view of Loch Sionascaig (centre) from the mountain Stac Pollaidh. The Western Highlands receive some of the highest annual average rain in the United Kingdom (Spike, 2017).

An Overview of Scotland's Drought and Flooding

Scotland’s Western Highlands receive some of the highest annual average rain in the United Kingdom, and due to heavier rainfall, the rest of the region is at risk of increased floods (Osborn & Hulme, 2002; Afzal et al., 2011, p.16). However, compared to Western Scotland, the east is much drier, making it particularly susceptible to drought (Davies et al., 2020). While rainfall has increased across Scotland since the mid-20th century, especially during the winter months (Werritty & Sugden, 2012), drought events have occurred yearly since the intense heatwave of 2018, impacting the country’s agriculture, unique ecosystems, forestry, and water-intensive energy sources and industries (Locatelli et al., 2021; Visser-Quinn et al., 2021; Baird et al., 2023).

The Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019 strengthened Scotland’s resolve to combat climate change by achieving legally binding net-zero emissions by 2045, as opposed to an 80% reduction by 2050 agreed in the 2009 Act. Yet, even as climate change disrupts social, economic, and political systems, the action and investment in Scotland’s adaptation measures, albeit innovative and far-reaching on paper, are still inadequately implemented (Climate Change Committee, 2023). In agriculture alone, the damage to crops and livestock during 2017 and 2018 from disruptive climate events cost Scottish farmers an estimated £161 million (Ecosulis & Farmlytics, 2019). Extreme weather events have become more frequent, and the lack of climate action will significantly increase the estimated £1.1 billion the nation needs annually to fund measures to achieve net zero by 2050 (Scottish Fiscal Commission, 2024).

Floods

Rising sea levels around the Scottish coast have caused coastal flooding to be more violent and destructive (the Firth of Clyde flood in January 1991 being a significant example (Sabatino et al., 2016)). Inland, the frequency of river flood events in Scotland has increased since the end of the 1980s (Black & Burns, 2002; McEwen, 2006). As climate change accelerates coastal erosion and intensifies precipitation and the severity of storms and storm surges, both types of flooding are projected to increase throughout this century.

Figure 2: A storm surge (storm flood) batters the village of Port William, Dumfries and Galloway, Scotland, in early 2014 (Baird, 2014).

Scotland’s west coast is prone to coastal flooding from its exposure to the Atlantic Ocean weather and low-lying areas like the Solway Firth separating England and Scotland (Baxter et al., 2008; CREW, 2012 & Rulent et al., 2021). The ferocity of Storms Kathleen and Ashley in April and October 2024, respectively, highlighted the coast’s vulnerability to high tides and strong winds. On the northeast coast, flooding events have occurred in recent years in Stonehaven, Aberdeenshire, due to the overflowing of the Carron Water, a river flowing through the coastal town into the North Sea. By the end of this century, the water flowing in Scottish rivers is projected to have increased by 30% due to climate change (JBA Consulting, 2013), with negative outcomes for public safety, flood management, and health and wellbeing (Sayers et al., 2022; Thomas & Niedzwiedz, 2024). Rising water levels, though, at the Carron’s lower reach have already caused financial damage to businesses and required the temporary evacuation of some Stonehaven residents (JBA Consulting, 2012).

The Flood Risk Management (Scotland) Act 2009 aimed to modernise inland and coastal flood management in Scotland by implementing a collaborative approach. The Act identifies local and national bodies responsible for protecting communities and the environment but these are ultimately accountable to the Scottish Government. The Scottish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA), established in 1996, became the country’s principal flood forecasting and warning authority and strategic flood risk management authority (Geddes et al., 2017, p.10). The planning role of local authorities was also strengthened as they are tasked to create flood risk management plans, such as Stonehaven’s river and coastal flood defences (Aberdeenshire Council, 2022), by adapting SEPA’s national strategies for local conditions. In addition, local authorities became accountable for managing water sources and the construction of flood defences. Interaction is crucial between stakeholders, including the public, at all stages and with an understanding of flood prevention, but “[a] lack of funding and direction for LAs [local authorities] make the implementation of flood risk actions difficult” (Mackie, 2019, p.3). Frequent and severe flooding events as climate change worsens will increase the financial costs of infrastructural damage and repairing the land destroyed, demanding life-changing decisions about which areas should be protected (Pryce & Chen, 2011).

The urgency to reassess Scotland’s coastal and flood management was recognised after January 1991, when the Firth of Clyde coastal flood caused millions of pounds of damage and overwhelmed the estuary’s inadequate coastal defences. An early warning system and flood prevention schemes along the Clyde were commissioned after the event (Kaya et al., 2005; Ball et al., 2009). Although not linked to climate change, this event and extreme floods in the immediate years gave impetus to calculating the risks to Scotland’s coastline from future occurrences (Black & Burns, 2002), resulting in the extensive, evidence-based Dynamic Coast project beginning in 2015. Through in-depth research and analysis of coastal history, the initiative aimed to provide a comprehensive understanding of coastal erosion in Scotland, thereby improving coastal policy planning and adaptation measures.

Figure 2: A bridge under construction over the Carron Water in Stonehaven, Aberdeenshire, as part of flood defence works (NemesisAT, 2021).

Droughts

The effects of drought on the Scottish economy, environment, and society have yet to be thoroughly studied (Baird et al., 2023). Still, these events have been a yearly occurrence since 2018, when the UK experienced a prolonged and severe heatwave (Turner et al., 2021). Subsequent droughts in Scotland have threatened forest ecosystems (Locatelli et al., 2021) and disrupted farming and private water supplies (Teedon et al., 2020; Gosling et al., 2024). As climate change intensifies, longer droughts could occur once every three years by 2040 (Baird et al., 2021), requiring sustainable water management practices in a country long considered water-rich (Visser-Quinn, 2021).

From the borders to the Shetland Islands, the east of Scotland is at greater risk of drought than the rest of the country, threatening its agriculturally rich landscape (Waajen, 2019; Baird et al., 2021). During the summer months, rainfall is projected to decrease. The warmer and drier conditions will stretch future water supplies, disrupting crops and livestock irrigation and restricting the operation of water-intensive industries, such as whisky distilleries (AHDB, 2018; Roberts & Maslin, 2021).

Agriculture, renewable energy, and whisky are key sectors of Scotland’s economy facing considerable stress from worsening water scarcity and drought. While these sectors are significant sources of employment and economic drivers, their dependence on water makes them vulnerable to breakdowns if water supplies are restricted or rainfall patterns erratic (Reay et al., 2020; Visser-Quinn et al., 2021; Adams et al., 2022). The effects of the 2018 UK-wide drought highlighted the urgent need for research and government support to adapt water-intensive industries to climate change (Fennell et al., 2019; Turner et al., 2021; Visser-Quinn et al., 2021).

Figure 4: Hydropower for a Hydro Nation. The surge tower for Grudie Bridge Hydropower scheme. Loch Luichart is in the background (Noble, 2010).

Roughly 80% of the land in Scotland is used for agriculture (Scottish Government, 2023), with the east being the primary region of arable and livestock farming (Jenkins et al., 2022). The sector is pivotal to the Scottish economy as its produce output is worth £3.18 billion a year (Scottish Government, 2024); the country’s world-renowned potato industry alone contributes £4.5bn to the UK economy. Drought events disrupt the rearing of livestock (water resources, forage quality, and infectious diseases, for example) and the growing of crops (such as irrigation, yields, and soil conditions), posing serious concerns for future food production and security for Scotland and the rest of Britain. As of December 2021, Britain - the countries of England, Scotland, and Wales - produces only 60% of the food it consumes (DEFRA, 2021, quoted in Waugh, 2024).

Since the early 20th century, hydropower has been an electricity generator in Scotland (Sample et al., 2015). An expansion of water power is envisaged in Scotland: The Hydro Nation (Robbie, 2019, p.64), a government agenda adopted in 2013 to sustainably and fully utilise the country’s plentiful water resource for industrial, societal, and technological endeavours domestically and abroad. Since 2014, the Hydro Nation Forum has reported annually. In its 2018 submission, an extension of hydropower was proposed to include the valuable source of Scotland canals’ 332 million litres of water (The Scottish Government, 2018).

While wind is the major source of Scotland’s renewable energy (Alldritt & Hopwood; Shepherd et al., 2021), the country is becoming a world leader in hydropower, helped by its water supply from rainfall and lochs, which accounts for 12% of its electricity. Renewable energy is a cornerstone of Scotland’s net-zero emissions goal (Anandarajah & McDowall, 2012; O’Gorman et al., 2024), but hydropower is an energy asset that requires a substantial volume of freshwater (MacLeod et al., 2006). Climate change will impact rivers and rainfall levels in unpredictable ways, causing either competition over reduced water resources or extreme flooding events increasing the volume of the water flow (Adams et al., 2022; Dallison & Patil, 2023), both of which will impact the safety and power output of Scotland’s hydropower plants.

Figure 5: Whisky galore. However, the whisky industry is at risk from increased drought and low barley yields caused by climate change throughout this century (Peterdhere, 2016).

Scotland is globally revered for its whisky (Scotch), but research commissioned by Scotland’s Centre of Expertise for Waters (CREW) has found the industry at risk from increased drought throughout this century (Glendell et al., 2024), especially in the “drought hotspot” of the River Spey, northeast Scotland, where the greatest concentration of distilleries are (Visser-Quinn et al., 2021, quoted in Glendell et al., 2024, p.11). The whisky industry, which contributes billions of pounds to the Scottish economy, experienced the effects of climate change during the 2018 heatwave, which disrupted the freshwater supplies and reduced barley yields essential for production (Cammarano et al., 2019; Fennell et al., 2020).

A future of lower river flows and poorly irrigated crops will exacerbate the supply of primary ingredients whisky distilleries need. Furthermore, soil erosion, first connected to changing weather patterns in the 1970s (Boardman et al., 1993, p.179, quoted in Waugh, 2024), is having a noticeable effect on arable farming in east Scotland, where barley is primarily grown (Boardman, 2013; Lilly et al., 2018). While rainfall is a primary factor for barley yields (Cammarano et al., 2019), wetter winters, when the soil will become muddy and structurally unstable leading to erosion, are likely to prevent the planting and cultivation of barley seeds in the spring (Roberts & Maslin, 2021).

Scotland’s National Water Scarcity Plan, introduced in 2015 by SEPA, is a strategy for a future of water shortages during prolonged periods of drought while still “protecting the environment and providing resources for human and economic activity” (SEPA, 2020, p.3). To maintain balanced water usage for Scotland’s environment, industry, and society, the Scarcity Plan, similar to the Flood Risk 2009 Act, has appointed various bodies to undertake and manage specific measures to protect supplies. Dialogue between stakeholders and universal support for water-saving measures are fundamental for the plan to be achievable (Waajen, 2019), but the unpredictability of climate change means any long-term commitments must be carefully planned and implemented to avoid the worst of "maladaptation" when the adaptation plan creates a more dangerous environment (Schipper, 2020).

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