The Impact of Climate Change on British Farming

"Climate change is not just a topic for the future - it is already producing real consequences." — Distinguished Professors Dr. Bruce A. McCarl (Texas A&M University) and Prof. Thomas W. Hertel (Purdue University) writing in 2018 (McCarl & Hertel, 2018, p.60).

In the countries of Great Britain—England, Scotland, and Wales—agriculture is extremely vulnerable to the unpredictable consequences of climate change, a global phenomenon increasing in frequency and severity. It affects Britain's farming and environmental systems in multiple ways, including difficulty rearing livestock, shifting planting seasons, depleting soil nutrients, and the risk of heat-related illnesses and injuries. More extreme weather events are further forecast to become the norm due to climate change (Diffenbaugh et al., 2017; Ebi et al., 2021; Clarke et al., 2022), with temperature shifts, prolonged droughts, floods, and increased precipitation expected to impact global agricultural yields and the land suitable for crops (Selvaraju et al., 2011; Devot et al., 2023).

Thus, Britain’s agricultural sector is beginning to experience the climate change vulnerability felt by farmers and food producers across the globe. Internationally, the picture of food security is grim. Of the world’s population of 8 billion, in 2024 the annual report of the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World, reported a sobering figure of up to 757 million people hungry in 2023 (one in eleven). Another 2.33 billion were described as “moderately or severely food insecure” (FAO et al., 2024, p.4). The African continent, specifically the countries of Ethiopia, Somalia, and Sudan, continues to be the worst affected by hunger as a result of conflict and extreme weather events.

“Climate change is not just a topic for the future - it is already producing real consequences” (McCarl & Hertel, 2018, p.60). In Britain, extreme weather has devastated crops, livestock, infrastructure, and farmers’ livelihoods. While these events have persuaded farmers that their traditions, practices, and methods, which have evolved over thousands of years, need to be reformed to mitigate the environmental stresses caused by climate change (Tompkins et al., 2010; Farmlytics & WWF Cymru, 2024), many have yet to prioritise implementing adaptation measures because of financial constraints and uncertainty of risks (Wheeler & Lobley, 2021; Boon et al., 2024). Delays exacerbate the impacts of extreme weather events and prevent effective preparedness against future climate shocks and stresses. This article highlights these dynamics across Great Britain and discusses its nations' efforts to curb the increasing vulnerability and negative impact.

Figure 1: A green and pleasant land. A tractor working on a farm near the village of Wootton, West Oxfordshire, England (Blenkinsopp, 2014).

An Overview of British Farming

The island of Great Britain—consisting of England, Scotland, and Wales—has a rich and diverse natural landscape, of which 90% in Wales, 80% in Scotland, and 63.1% in England is used for some form of agriculture (Coe et al., 2024; Scottish Government, 2023; House of Lords, 2022). When Northern Ireland is included, roughly 72% of the total United Kingdom’s land is used for agriculture (DEFRA, 2020). After thousands of years of adaptation to local weather, climate, and physical conditions, the most common types of farming found in Britain today are arable (crops), livestock (rearing of animals), and mixed (both crops and animals). The UK Government’s Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) considered farming as having “a vital role to play in managing the UK’s land and landscape” (DEFRA, 2018, quoted in Wheeler & Lobley, 2021), yet extreme changes and events have exposed the fragility of the industry as a source of livelihood and food production.

British farming was severely affected early this century by flood and drought events caused by climate change (Harkness et al., 2020; Wheeler & Lobley, 2021), resulting in billions of pounds in loss and damage to an already vulnerable sector (Speakman, 2018). Decreasing soil quality has also been a long-term issue for farmers, with concerns about erosion raised in the 1970s due, in part, to noticeable weather changes (Boardman et al., 1993, p.179). A future of wetter winters and hotter summers will become the norm, impacting water supplies for arable and livestock farming and disrupting planting and growing. The risk of disease and pests to main crops like potatoes (Garry et al., 2021) and wheat (Harkness et al., 2020) will also rise as weather patterns and temperatures alter.

The impact of food deprivations and social upheaval caused by the Second World War (1939–45) laid the foundations of modern, intensive farming methods in Britain. However, despite the sweeping post-war Agriculture Act 1947 acknowledging the necessity of developing a sustainable domestic farming industry after six years of global conflict (Johnson, 1948; Barnburgh, 1965), subsequent agricultural intensification had a profound and unsustainable effect on the British farming system and landscape. The proliferation of fertiliser use and mechanisation increased yields by the mid-1960s “more rapidly … than during any period before or since” (Brassley, 2000, p.60), but it resulted in significant natural biodiversity loss (Robinson & Sutherland, 2002; Alduncin, 2018). Since the 1970s, intensive farming has caused the UK’s wildlife, essential for healthy and productive ecosystems, to decrease by over 40% (Hayhow et al., 2019).

The 1947 Act promoted food security and self-sufficiency in response to the country’s experience of rationing during wartime, when food supplies, grown domestically and imported, were greatly reduced (Lang & Schoen, 2016). These restrictions continued until 1954, when meat was the last to be derationed. Crop yields increased yearly after 1947 (Robinson & Sutherland, 2002; Brassley, 2000), but socioeconomic changes in the foreign and domestic markets, such as rising production costs, cheaper import costs, and falling farm incomes, mean today Britain produces only 60% of the food it consumes (DEFRA, 2021). As the population of each country continues to grow, more valuable farmland will be consumed by urban expansion (by 2050, 90% of the UK is projected to be urbanised (Keat et al., 2021, quoted in Waugh, 2024)). This raises serious security issues for the future of domestic food production if climate change makes land unsuitable for agriculture (Dobson et al., 2020) and the island nation becomes more dependent on vulnerable import supply chains (Reay et al., 2020; Cole & Petrikova, 2023).

Figure 2: Harvesting crops in Midlothian, southeast Scotland. Wetter winters and hotter summers will affect Britain's food production (Williams, 2022).

Adaptation Measures in England, Scotland, and Wales

In England, arable farming is found in the drier east of the country, in the counties of Lincolnshire and Norfolk, and livestock farming is principally found in the wetter, hillier west, which is ideal for grass growth. Of the three countries of Britain, the majority of the staple cereals—wheat, barley, and oats (Bell, 1957; Bağdatli et al., 2023)—are grown in England (DEFRA, 2024), but persistent flooding caused by climate change has decreased crop yields in recent years and, thereby, reduced English farmers’ incomes by as much as 19% (DEFRA, 2024, July).

The country’s arable farmers are realising the destructive reality of climate change. A National Farmers’ Union (NFU) survey in 2017 found the livelihood of 57% of farmers had been affected by severe weather since 2007 (National Farmers’ Union (NFU), 2017). Spring is the crucial planting season, but extreme events in early 2024 disrupted the process by destroying crops or making the ground conditions unsuitable for preparation and drilling. Wheat quality and yields are especially susceptible to varying weather and climate extremes (Putelat et al., 2021). Changes in rainfall patterns, either leading to flooding or drought, affect the crop’s development period (flowering) (Semenov, 2008) and can increase its vulnerability to pests and diseases (Harkness et al., 2020; Clarke et al., 2021).

Ongoing research to develop drought-resistant key crops, such as barley and wheat, has been extensive (Williams, 2020) and was boosted in November 2023 with the creation of the UK-CGIAR Centre (John Innes Centre, 2023), a “collaboration in science and innovation” between UK and international scientists to research global food security. However, long-term adaptation measures continue to be predominately aimed at water efficiency and crop management (Rey et al., 2017, quoted in Holman & Knox, 2023), both of which have been taught in farmer workshops for many years (Tompkins et al., 2010, p.633). Farmers have also been encouraged to increase crop resilience during drought, when main water supplies are stretched, by investing in the infrastructure to collect and store rain and river water (Wheeler et al., 2021; National Farmers’ Union (NFU), 2023).

Figure 3: Rolling fields of wheat near Reading, southern England. In 2021, the UK was ranked as the 13th largest wheat producer in the world (Brophy, 2005).

The Climate Change (Scotland) Act of 2009, outlining Scotland’s climate adaptation measures, identified agriculture as a significant contributor to the greenhouse gases that the Act agreed to be cut by 80% by 2050 (Renwick & Wreford, 2011, p.183). Scotland provides Britain with 80% of its seed potato crop, and the high quality of its potatoes, grown in the east of the country and attributed to the cool, northern climate, is internationally recognised by their export beyond Europe (Rathnayaka et al., 2024). As of 2020, Scotland’s farm-gate potatoes, when farmers sell seed and ware varieties directly to the consumer, are worth £245 million (Creissen et al., 2024); overall, this highly profitable industry contributes £4.5bn to the UK economy. Therefore, as a significant source of employment and a key vegetable in the British diet, providing essential nutrients and minerals, Scottish potatoes are vital to the UK’s future food security (Rathnayaka et al., 2024; Thompson, 2024).

While the fragile balance of rainfall and temperature levels has made the UK one of the top twenty potato-producing countries in the world (Adesina & Thomas, 2020, p.40), like all agriculture, the crop is vulnerable to disease as temperatures rise, particularly potato blight, which emerges when conditions during the growing season become too warm and humid. The occurrence of the disease in the east of Scotland is expected to increase by 70% due to climate change (Garry et al., 2021). A swing between frequent droughts and excessive rainfall will also contribute to its spread, which has the destructive potential to shrink both the yields and suitable growing areas.

With the support of the Scottish Government, the Aberdeen-based James Hutton Institute, a leading international centre for potato research, is devising adaptation measures to protect the potato crop from the worst of climate change. Disease-proof variants that require less water are also being developed to create a sustainable potato industry.

Figure 4: A potato field in Fife, Scotland. Outbreaks of the devastating potato blight disease are expected to increase by 70% due to climate change (Scottish Government, 2022).

The upland conditions of Wales make sheep farming the country’s only viable form of farming; only 6% of the land is used for arable (Coe et al., 2024). While employment in agriculture in Wales is higher than in the rest of Britain (Armstrong, 2016), it is an ageing population of farmers owning roughly 8.7 million sheep (Welsh Government, 2023). The release of methane gas by these large flocks contributes to the 16% of emissions caused by Welsh agriculture (Farmlytics & WWF Cymru, 2024).

In a country where 90% of the land is used for farming (Coe et al., 2024), climate change threatens to disrupt the Welsh economy dependent on agriculture (Welsh Government, 2019). Sustainable sheep farming relies on pasture management to ensure livestock access healthy grazing grounds, thereby maintaining the sector’s low impact. Dry summers mean the grass has not received the moisture to renew, resulting in animals growing slower or underweight. Substitute hay feed can also become expensive for the farmers if extreme weather conditions are prolonged.

Figure 5: Climate change could severely affect the quality of and accessibility to the grazing grounds in Wales needed to sustain sheep farming (Sewell, 2015).

The Environment (Wales) Act 2016 aims to reduce emissions by 80% by 2050 and directly impacts the sheep farming industry by promoting the sustainable management of natural resources. As climate change affects livestock and farming practices, such as the lambing season (Farmlytics & WWF Cymru, 2024), sustainable changes are happening in sheep farming. However, they are not uniformly implemented. Research into sheep genetic selection to reduce their methane emissions (belching and flatulence) (Hybu Cig Cymru/Meat Promotion Wales, 2011) and improving land and water management are just some ways Welsh farmers have responded to climate change even before the passing of the Act. Still, the long-term challenges for the industry’s survival are many and costly: “One of the ironies of the climate emergency is that hot weather encourages greater use of resources - more shelter and storage room to protect livestock and crops, more fertiliser and more irrigation - all while delivering less produce” (Arshad & Fraser, 2020).

After years of climate change’s “real consequences” — extreme and devastating weather events — British farmers recognise the urgency to adapt to an uncertain future of floods and drought impacts. Many complex social, economic, and environmental challenges threaten the farming industry’s resilience and security as global temperatures and weather patterns shift, and climate change’s unpredictable but disruptive force on British agriculture will require a long-term multidisciplinary approach involving farmers, governments, and researchers.

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